Ellinghorst IR compiles independent consensus forecasts of UCB based on the financial estimates of various analysts covering UCB.
In order to provide meaningful data only regularly updated or reiterated estimates are included in the consensus. The tables below are based on the estimates of around 15 different brokers. See the list of analysts and their contact details here.
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UCB FY Consensus Product Sales Estimates (Average)
| In € million | 2019a | 2020e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | Peak Sales | NPV |
| Core Products | |||||||||
| Cimzia | 1,712 | 1,800 | 1,888 | 1,946 | 1,941 | 1,776 | 1,522 | 5,080 | |
| Vimpat | 1,322 | 1,449 | 1,549 | 1,382 | 867 | 682 | 556 | 2,580 | |
| Keppra | 770 | 764 | 715 | 647 | 592 | 546 | 499 | 2,210 | |
| Briviact | 221 | 295 | 364 | 431 | 492 | 545 | 583 | 627 | 1,761 |
| Neupro | 319 | 301 | 261 | 217 | 185 | 159 | 136 | 494 | |
| Potential new Product Launches (global sales, non-risk adj.) |
|||||||||
| Evenity (romosozumab) | 399 | 582 | 731 | 865 | 989 | 1,084 | 1,297 | 2,082 | |
| Nayzilam | 23 | 45 | 66 | 87 | 104 | 113 | 141 | 334 | |
| Bimekizumab | 0 | 98 | 355 | 672 | 1,010 | 1,372 | 2,323 | 5,324 | |
| Zilucoplan | 0 | 0 | 39 | 153 | 315 | 490 | 1,116 | 2,235 | |
| Rozanolixizumab | 0 | 0 | 16 | 88 | 198 | 367 | 1,058 | 1,899 | |
| Dapimab | 0 | 7 | 16 | 34 | 60 | 109 | |||
| Staccato alprazolam | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 42 | 120 | |||
| UCB0107 (Anti-Tau) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 78 | 138 |
UCB FY Consensus Earnings Estimates (Average)
| In € million | 2019a | 2020e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
| Net Sales | 4,680 | 5,020 | 5,306 | 5,480 | 5,381 |
| Revenue | 4,913 | 5,242 | 5,513 | 5,678 | 5,570 |
| Adjusted EBIT | 1,118 | 1,100 | 1,258 | 1,440 | 1,406 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,431 | 1,441 | 1,608 | 1,786 | 1,761 |
| Net Profit* | 792 | 728 | 906 | 1,076 | 1,054 |
| Core EPS (€) | 5.20 | 4.91 | 5.66 | 6.48 | 6.40 |
*attributable to UCB shareholders
UCB FY Consensus Product Sales Estimates (Median)
| In € million | 2019a | 2020e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e | 2024e | 2025e | Peak Sales | NPV |
| Core Products | |||||||||
| Cimzia | 1,712 | 1,804 | 1,906 | 1,973 | 1,985 | 1,794 | 1,516 | 5,035 | |
| Vimpat | 1,322 | 1,452 | 1,540 | 1,401 | 909 | 684 | 539 | 2,564 | |
| Keppra | 770 | 761 | 714 | 641 | 592 | 539 | 487 | 2,102 | |
| Briviact | 221 | 294 | 360 | 423 | 482 | 537 | 584 | 599 | 1,709 |
| Neupro | 319 | 305 | 256 | 214 | 188 | 162 | 135 | 519 | |
| Potential new Product Launches (global sales, non-risk adj.) |
|||||||||
| Evenity (romosozumab) | 403 | 580 | 698 | 837 | 1,003 | 1,091 | 1,300 | 1,932 | |
| Nayzilam | 25 | 48 | 68 | 89 | 107 | 113 | 150 | 284 | |
| Bimekizumab | 0 | 84 | 354 | 700 | 1,044 | 1,329 | 2,303 | 5,094 | |
| Zilucoplan | 0 | 0 | 0 | 140 | 299 | 447 | 1,095 | 1,957 | |
| Rozanolixizumab (Rozimab) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 170 | 353 | 985 | 1,708 | |
| Dapimab | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 63 | |||
| Staccato alprazolam | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 88 | |||
| UCB0107 (Anti-Tau) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 82 | 129 |
UCB FY Consensus Earnings Estimates (Median)
| In € million | 2019a | 2020e | 2021e | 2022e | 2023e |
| Net Sales | 4,680 | 5,040 | 5,346 | 5,576 | 5,439 |
| Revenue | 4,913 | 5,272 | 5,536 | 5,739 | 5,639 |
| Adjusted EBIT | 1,118 | 1,078 | 1,232 | 1,461 | 1,501 |
| Adjusted EBITDA | 1,431 | 1,426 | 1,620 | 1,805 | 1,818 |
| Net Profit* | 792 | 729 | 934 | 1,095 | 1,110 |
| Core EPS (€) | 5.20 | 4.92 | 5.76 | 6.47 |
6.48 |
*attributable to UCB shareholders
Downloads:
UCB HY 2020 & FY Consensus (Excel)
UCB FY P&L Consensus (PDF)
UCB FY Product Sales Consensus (PDF)
Last updated: 26 November 2020
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Disclaimer:
This document has been compiled by Ellinghorst IR Ltd. for information purposes only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. It is based on estimates and forecasts of various analysts regarding revenues, earnings and business developments of the relevant company. Such estimates and forecasts cannot be independently verified by reason of the subjective character. Ellinghorst IR Ltd. gives no guarantee, representation or warranty and is not responsible or liable as to its accuracy and completeness. Ellinghorst IR Ltd. has not commented and will not comment on any of the individual financial forecasts used to generate the information contained herein.